Is Covid-19 growing less lethal? The infection fatality rate says ‘no’

first_img [email protected] Privacy Policy Knowing the true infection fatality rate (IFR), a key focus of research for one of us (D.L.R.), is essential in assessing whether regions are seeing improvements in the timeliness and effectiveness of Covid-19 treatment and, if they aren’t, rapidly identifying and implementing better practices.advertisement Recent reports have suggested that Covid-19 has become markedly less lethal in the United States. Our analysis of death rates and infection fatality rates from Arizona, the U.S. as a whole, and New York City shows it isn’t, indicating that public health measures to reduce infections should not be relaxed.Determining the true fatality rate can also help identify why more people with Covid-19 are not benefiting from advances in care.As of late July, the state of Arizona was reporting a fatality rate of 2.1% among people who contracted Covid-19. That is markedly lower than reports in the spring from areas such as New York City, which saw fatality rates as high as 10%.advertisement [email protected] First OpinionIs Covid-19 growing less lethal? The infection fatality rate says ‘no’ Douglas L. Rothman Please enter a valid email address. Pima County Medical Examiner Dr. Greg Hess walks out of the overflow body storage cooler at the medical examiner’s office in Tucson, Ariz., in late July. Matt York/AP Newsletters Sign up for First Opinion A weekly digest of our opinion column, with insight from industry experts. Infection fatality rate estimatesArizona, July 2020National, Spring 2020Meta-analysis, Spring 20200%1%RegionPercentRegionInfection fatality rateArizona, July 20200.63%National, Spring 20200.65%Meta-analysis, Spring 20200.68%Infection fatality rate estimates Ratio of deaths to hospitalizationsArizonaNew York City0 to 1718 to 4445 to 6565+All0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Age groupsPercentAge groupArizonaNew York City0 to 175%2%18 to 4411%8%45 to 6527%23%65+47%49%All31%34%New York City By Douglas L. Rothman, Jessica E. Rothman, and Gerard Bossard Aug. 24, 2020 Reprints Patrick Skerrett / STAT Source: Douglas L. Rothman It is unlikely that Arizona is an exceptional case: other states experiencing large increases in cases and fatalities since late June have reported similar fatality rates.If Covid-19 is not becoming less deadly, what explains the five-fold lower reported fatality rate in Arizona now compared to New York City in the spring? The most likely explanation is that the large increase in testing since the spring has increased the number of diagnosed cases several fold. The reported fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of diagnosed cases. A larger number of diagnosed cases due to more testing would decrease the reported fatality rate. This conclusion is consistent with a CDC report that the true number of infections was underestimated in the U.S. during the March-to-May period by as much as 10 fold. Leave this field empty if you’re human: Given progress in the diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19, why has there been no apparent improvement in the infection fatality rate? The two main possibilities are that the improvements that have been made in treating Covid-19 are not enough to make a detectable difference in the infection fatality rate, or that a large fraction of those who die of Covid-19 do not get to the hospital in time for successful treatment. We were, unfortunately, unable to find the fatality rate of patients who were hospitalized. Such data would help distinguish between these possibilities.We recommend that all states implement procedures to track the ratio of deaths to hospitalizations, as well as implement random testing studies to accurately track infection fatality rates. Without this vital information, our ability to improve the health infrastructure to treat Covid-19 is handcuffed and may well lead to deaths that could otherwise have been prevented.Douglas L. Rothman is a professor of radiology and biomedical engineering at Yale School of Medicine. Jessica E. Rothman is a graduate student in biostatistics at Yale School of Public Health. Gerard Bossard is a freelance writer.Editor’s note: The article was updated to clarify the difference between the true infection fatality rate and the reported fatality rate. The supposed reduction in lethality of Covid-19 has been largely attributed to improvements in treatments; earlier identification of Covid-19 infections, allowing for rapid medical intervention; and protection from infection of older higher-risk individuals. It also could be explained by increased testing, which would identify more mild and asymptomatic cases, leading to a lower reported fatality rate. The infection fatality rate represents the percentage of all people infected with Covid-19 who die from the disease. Getting a solid handle on the IFR is critical for accurate Covid-19 hospitalization and fatality projections, which are needed to guide public health measures.To gauge possible changes in the lethality of Covid-19, we made a conservative estimate of the infection fatality rate in Arizona, which has seen the majority of its cases and fatalities since late June. We chose Arizona based on its excellent Department of Health Services data reporting site and its state-of-the-art hospital care system. We compared our estimate to the best estimate of the infection fatality rate across the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from data obtained earlier in the pandemic, primarily the spring of 2020.To determine the infection fatality rate in Arizona, we divided the percentage of the state’s population who had died from Covid-19 as of July 30, 2020, by the 12.9% of the population that was infected based on antibody testing between July 20 and July 26, 2020. Antibody testing captures the total percentage of the population that had been infected with Covid-19 from the beginning of the outbreak. We then calculated and applied a standard correction factor for the delay between case diagnosis and death. This yielded an infection fatality rate of 0.63%, which is not significantly different from the CDC’s best estimate of 0.65% for the U.S. in the Spring of 2020. About the Authors Reprints Winter is coming: Why America’s window of opportunity to beat back Covid-19 is closing Patrick Skerrett / STAT Source: Douglas L. Rothman A similar value, 0.68%, was reported from an extensive meta-analysis of published reports from the United States and other developed countries through May 2020.To independently assess if Covid-19 has become less lethal, we compared the ratio of deaths to hospitalizations reported by Arizona with the ratio reported by New York City. This comparison is independent of accurately knowing the percentage of the infected population. We chose New York City because it was among the earliest and hardest hit regions in the U.S., so improvements in the effectiveness and timeliness of treatments since then should be easily detected. There was surprisingly little difference in this ratio overall and within age groups, as shown in the chart below. Tags Coronaviruspublic health [email protected] Gerard Bossard Related: Jessica E. Rothmanlast_img read more

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Coal-fired power plant to be upgraded by Shaw

first_img Twitter No posts to display Linkedin Read more remediation news Coal-fired power plant to be upgraded by Shaw 6.18.2012 The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) said it has been awarded a contract by Portland General Electric to install emissions reduction equipment at the 585 MW, coal-fired Boardman Station in northeastern Oregon. Facebook Shaw will engineer, procure and construct a dry sorbent injection system and balance of plant equipment to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions from the plant. The undisclosed value of the contract will be included in Shaw’s Power segment’s backlog of unfilled orders in the third quarter of fiscal year 2012. Twitter Mississippi Power cutting stakes in coal-fired, gas-fired stations to reduce excess MW, emissions TAGSPGE Vietnam: scaling back coal-fired plans toward gas, renewables Linkedin EmissionsAir Pollution Control Equipment ServicesCoal Facebook RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR New Jersey utility regulators extend zero-carbon breaks for PSEG nuclear power plants By chloecox – Previous articlePE Volume 116 Issue 6Next articleWestinghouse Solar, CBD Energy partner on solar project in Australia chloecox last_img read more

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Deaf Puppy Gets Sign Language Lessons After Being Adopted By Man Who is Also Deaf

first_imgAddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to FacebookFacebookFacebookShare to TwitterTwitterTwitterShare to EmailEmailEmailShare to RedditRedditRedditShare to MoreAddThisMoreEmerson the puppy was only 6 weeks old when he was dumped at an animal shelter and left to fight for his life against a host of health issues.Staffers at the NFR Maine animal shelter in North Monmouth, Maine say that in addition to being deaf, the puppy suffered from seizures and canine parvovirus, a highly contagious viral illness.Despite his struggles, Emerson underwent treatment for the disease and pulled through. The shelter made a Facebook post about the black Labrador mix in hopes of finding him the perfect home. Several people contacted the shelter to express their interest in adopting Emerson, but when they were eventually contacted by Nick Abbott, staffers knew it was a match made in heaven.WATCH: This 2-Year-Old Deaf Girl Loves People – So Her Whole Neighborhood is Learning Sign Language31-year-old Abbott says that he was particularly moved by Emerson’s story on social media because he too is deaf.“Nick said he was interested in meeting Emerson because they would understand each other, being that they both share the same hearing difficulties,” the shelter wrote on Facebook. “When Nick and his mom walked into the house to meet Emerson, Emerson made a direct line for Nick and sat at his feet.“That’s all it took. I was sold that this was fate, and these two belonged to each other.”Abbott and Emerson have now been living with each other for three months, and their relationship is melting hearts across social media. Abbott says that he has been teaching sign language to his canine companion so they can communicate with each other. Just one week after Emerson moved into his new home, Abbott said he already knew the sign for “sit”.LOOK: 15-Year-old Melts the Hearts of Airline Passengers When She Befriends Blind and Deaf Passenger“Emerson learned sign language very quickly and it did not take long for him to understand. Good training is the key to a good dog,” Abbott told Pretty52. “So far Emerson knows how to sit, lay down, stay, come and we are currently working on shake.”Needless to say, the shelter has been delighted by the duo’s success.“This boy deserved nothing short of a fairy tale ending and that is EXACTLY what he got!!” wrote the shelter. “This will go down in history as one of my all time favorite adoptions stories.”Be Sure And Share The Pawsome Story With Your Friends On Social Media…AddThis Sharing ButtonsShare to FacebookFacebookFacebookShare to TwitterTwitterTwitterShare to EmailEmailEmailShare to RedditRedditRedditShare to MoreAddThisMorelast_img read more

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“Not set any future plans yet” – Southampton player held talks…

first_imgRalph Hasenhüttl replaced the former Manchester City boss at St Mary’s Stadium in December 2018, and the winger went on to make only one league start in this calendar year.Reports coming out of Belgium suggest the Saints have agreed a deal with Standard Liège for Moussa Djenepo and the arrival of the wideman will only increase competition for a place in the starting lineup.Speaking to Norway’s TV2, the 24-year-old responded to claims of Djenepo’s arrival, which could further restrict Elyounoussi’s chances of playing regular football next season.“Now there has been a focus on the national team and winning the two matches here. But I’m going to focus on myself when I return. There will always be changes in the Premier League. So, we’ll see how it is when I return,” Elyounoussi explained.Embed from Getty ImagesLast month, the Norway international admitted he will have a chat with the manager about his future at the club. The player has now confirmed he held talks with Hasenhüttl.“We had a little talk before I went on a holiday. He knows my qualities and sees that I fit into his plans. But we have not set any future plans yet. Now it’s time to get back in shape and take it from there,” he added.When TV2 further questioned if he felt secure after talking to Hasenhüttl, Elyounoussi said: “We had a good chat together. Both with him and the club. I didn’t get a good run when I got there, so now it is about getting in shape in the preseason.“It will be these two games here, and then there will be a holiday in Morocco. But I probably won’t get to be lazy there.”by Taboolaby TaboolaSponsored LinksSponsored LinksPromoted LinksPromoted LinksTrending TodayForge of Empires – Free Online GameIf You Like to Play, this City-Building Game is a Must Have.Forge of Empires – Free Online GameUndo熱門話題小心會長過頭…網友推爆:「真的長得超誇張!」熱門話題UndoRaid: Shadow Legends | Free DownloadEven Non-Gamers Are Obsessed With This RPG Game (It’s Worth Installing!)Raid: Shadow Legends | Free DownloadUndoMisterStocksThese Hilarious Photos Were Captured On The SubwayMisterStocksUndoPerfect-Dating.comThousands of successful men are looking for women in Tung ChungPerfect-Dating.comUndoKeto减肥1個簡單的妙招一夜「融化」腹部贅肉(今晚試試)Keto减肥UndoSmart Tech TrendOver 55? You Have to Try Those Revolutionary Glasses!Smart Tech TrendUndoCoworking Space | Search AdsThe cost of shared office in Hong Kong might surprise youCoworking Space | Search AdsUndoLoans | Search AdsNeed a loan? Search hereLoans | Search AdsUndo Mohamed Elyounoussi left FC Basel and made a switch to Southampton last summer and made seven starts under Mark Hughes.last_img read more

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